A Coupled Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Framework for Scenario Analysis

To capture the interactions between hydrologic and economic systems necessary for modeling water quality at a sufficient level of spatial detail, we have designed modular framework that couples an model with watershed model. represent system, Rectangular Choice-of-Technology (RCOT) was used because it represents both physical monetary aspects activities and, unlike traditional input-output or general equilibrium models, can optimize choices among operational technologies in addition to amount location production. For first implementation this framework, RCOT is coupled model, Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), which calibrated Cedar Run Watershed northern Virginia. This analyze eight scenarios related expansion agricultural activity Fauquier County. The database county-level data representative region 2012. Thus, when crop farming expanded fully utilize farmland available watershed, nitrogen concentration outflow increased from 0.6 4.3 mg/L. However, could select standard more nitrogen-efficient management practice, only 2.6 mg/L selected resource-efficient practice. Building on future work will involve designing realistic test policy options regional planning decisions wide range watersheds.